The recency bias in our expectations for the future
We tend to overemphasize what our recent experiences mean for our futures.
When things are going good, the future looks good, too. When things are going poorly, we can get trapped in an outlook of doom and gloom.
We tend to be overly optimistic about the speed of progress. We think things will be easier and quicker than they will be. When things aren’t progressing as hoped, we can become discouraged and abandon important projects, habits, and goals. This recency bias can be a threat to our ability to make progress in the long term.
Our future expectations for progress can vary wildly depending on our recent success (or lack thereof).
In a few simple charts, I’ve illustrated how our expectations for progress compare with reality at different points in time.
Expectations versus the reality of progress over time
When we first commit to doing or improving something, and we don’t fully appreciate how difficult it will be, our expectations for progress might look like a neat upward-sloping curve.
In reality, progress usually resembles something more of a jagged line, with periods of progress, stagnation and even decline.
Future expectations when we are making progress
When we’re making progress, we expect that trend to continue indefinitely:
Future expectations when progress has stalled or reversed
But when our performance falters or progress slows, our outlook can change quickly and dramatically. Our expectations for the future can become negative or neutral:
The recency bias of expectations in practice
Dating. When you’ve gone on a stretch of dates that lead nowhere, you can start to lose faith that you’ll find someone good for you. You’re not having the immediate success you expected. One day, you meet someone you like. Things are progressing. Everything about your dating life now looks rosy.
Creative endeavors. You are working to learn a new instrument, write more, or share more content online. When your learning and advancing, you expect more and more of the same. As soon as you get stuck or lose confidence in your ability to progress, expectations for your future success can flip. You may abandon the project or hobby.
Recovering from injuries. You start physical therapy. It’s painful and uncomfortable. It takes time to get better. When your condition is improving, you think you’ll be back to 100% in no time. Then your recovery stalls or takes a step back, and you begin to think you’ll be stuck in this state forever. How you feel on a given day can completely cloud your expectations for full recovery in the future.
What do we do with this?
Remember that progress is often a jagged line. Over time, this jagged line should trend upward. But that can be hard to see without zooming out. Sticking with things through the uncertain periods is half the battle, even when we don’t feel we are getting anywhere.
Bounce back with small wins. Making small amounts of progress can have an outsized impact on the course of a day, a week, or a year. Momentum strongly influences our optimism for the future. Try to write one paragraph. Do ten minutes of exercise. Read one page of a book. Small wins help us course-correct when we’re in doubt.
