The trends, when, and where of New York City crime
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The state of crime in New York
New Yorkers deserve contextualized crime reporting
New York City crime rates did rise over the pandemic from 2020 to 2022. Politicians and media outlets were quick to comment and raise the alarm bells. New York City Councilman Robert Holden testified at the special hearing that “I have not seen seen the lawlessness that I’m seeing today in New York City in my lifetime. That means we’re afraid to go anywhere”.
Perceptions of crime are too heavily biased by anecdotal evidence and media coverage. Statistics and historical context should carry greater weight. The perceptions people internalize about crime and safety can change how they engage with and feel toward where they live. That reason, among others, are why it matters we have an accurate understand about the state of crime.
To that end, I want to share what I’ve learned about the trends, timing, and location of crimes in New York City based on my own analysis of over 8 million crimes recorded by the NYPD from 2006 to 2022.
Crime has trended down over time, with the pandemic being an exception
So, are we experiencing the worst “lawlessness” in New York’s history?
Not even close.
The late 1980s and early 1990s are widely considered to be New York City’s worst period of crime. The crack cocaine epidemic along with severe and widespread economic hardship were two of several factors that fueled the highest murder rates the city has ever seen in 1990.
Fortunately, around the mid-1990s, crime began to improve, thanks to social, political and economic change along with greater policing efforts. Since the mid-1990s, New York has generally become safer and safer with each passing year.
We need to zoom out on the x-axis of time to appreciate how much safer the city had become going into 2020. You can see the pandemic years are the exception to the trend of progress made between 2006 and 2020:
New Yorkers are already safer in 2023
The raw crime data for 2023 will not be released until next year, but the crime rate increase in 2021 and 2022 should not cause New Yorkers alarm. Authorities have reassured crimes rates have been decreasing throughout 2023, and that the perceptions are worse than the true state of crime.
September 2023 data from the NYPD shows us that crime has already significantly improved compared to the same period last year. The overall crime index has declined, shootings are down, and the subway system is safer than it was in August of last year.
The contrast between 2022 and 2023 suggests that the spike in crimes in 2022 was more of a fluctuation rather than a concerning upward trend. With measures being taken by local law enforcement and declining crime rates to date, New Yorkers should remain optimistic about the safety and security of our city.
Where crime happens
Crimes rates in 2022 were highest in Manhattan and Bronx zip codes
Total crimes and crime rates vary significantly across New York City when broken down by zip code.
In Brooklyn, the highest absolute number of crimes took place in neighborhoods including Bushwick, New Lots, and Marcus Garvey Village. But more New Yorkers live in these zip codes, and while the true crime rate per 100k residents remains higher than average, crime rates are significantly higher in Manhattan and the Bronx. This first visual shows total crimes in a density map for 2022, not adjusted for population:
[chart]
When accounting for population density, we can see that touristy zip codes of Manhattan including Times Square are crime hotspots. This largely because many crimes that happen in Midtown happen to people who do not live there. Tourists are often ideal targets, and Midtown has more than its share of tourism and activity.
Outside of Midtown, Manhattan zip codes in the Lower East Side and Chinatown experienced relatively higher crime rates in 2022. Zip codes in the South Bronx also had high crime rates in 2022.
As for the safest areas of the city, Queens and South Brooklyn have among the lowest crime rates. The Upper East and Upper West Side neighborhoods that hug Central Park are also very safe.
The chart below shows a map of crime rates by zip code in 2022, which takes population density into account:
[Tableau chart]
When crime occurs
New York crimes are most common during the summer
Crime rates everywhere are generally their highest during the summertime. New York City is no exception. Looking at the chart below, you can see the how the amount of total crime fluctuates predictably over the course of the year:
July and August are reliably the most busy crime periods. Crime stays relatively high into the fall, then decreases significantly as New Yorkers enter into the winter months.
Nearly every year in February the total amount of crime in New York dips to its lowest point, with more people staying indoors from the cold and dark days.
Crime rates are at their highest late in the afternoon and early evening
Crimes rates are highest when people are most active in the late afternoon and early evening, as they return from work or school, run errands, and engage in outdoor activities. Young adults are out of school and the city is in rush hour.
The chart below shows the ebb and flow of crime throughout the course of the average day by counting the total number of crimes reported for each hour of the day from 2006 to 2022.
Violent crimes (including aggravated assault and murder) follow a different trend from crimes overall. They become more and more frequent as the day progresses, reaching their highest point at midnight:
Notes
Fortune tellers, beware
Among the oddest crimes classified by the New York State Penal Code is “fortune telling.” Twelve counts of “fortune telling” were reported to police between 2006 and 2022. What defines fortune telling as a crime?
A person is guilty of fortune telling when, for a fee or compensation which he directly or indirectly solicits or receives, he claims or pretends to tell fortunes, or holds himself out as being able, by claimed or pretended use of occult powers, to answer questions or give advice on personal matters or to exorcise, influence or affect evil spirits or curses (Source: New York Senate)
You don’t have to walk long on the New York streets to find someone offering psychic services. Clearly, there are legal lines you cross once you start affecting evil spirits and curses for a fee.
The book that inspired my analysis: Enlightenment Now
Steven Pinker’s book Enlightenment Now: The Case for Science, Humanism, Reason, and Progress shaped my optimism for human progress. We still have many problems to solve in our society. This book will make you rightly question claims that things like crime are "worse than ever before.” Sometimes, crime rates or life expectancy does worsen in America. While we must work to find solutions to these problems, we must draw optimism from how far we’ve come.
